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Anton Stroutchenevski
Senior Economist, Sberbank CIB

“High interest rates in Russia speak for households to increase savings and spend less as borrowing is expensive. The era of consumer demand being the major economic driver is over. The model of economic growth is changing and the export and investments will become the major drivers. However high real interest rates make Russia’s economic prospects seem less positive in short run. Sberbank CIB now sees GDP at +0.5% in 2017 vs. +1% earlier. Higher oil prices won’t help the Russian economy as they will boost the rouble, depriving the country of the advantage of competitive prices for its goods and services on the global market. If not from higher oil prices, the rouble is still set to win from central bank’s high interest rates and Moscow’s plan to increase borrowing next year by selling more OFZs.”
10/18/2016 – Reuters

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